Robinhood's event contracts business pulled in $156 million in Q2 2026, overtaking both stock trading and crypto trading revenue on the platform. The World Cup-driven surge now ranks prediction markets as the company's second-largest revenue line, behind only options trading.
Robinhood's event contracts segment pulled in $156 million in transaction revenue during Q2 2026, overtaking stock trading at $129 million and crypto trading at $100 million. That makes prediction markets the platform's second-largest revenue driver, trailing only options trading at $342 million.
The numbers behind the crossover
Robinhood's Q2 2026 earnings show a company rapidly reshaping its revenue mix. Total net revenue hit a record $1.31 billion, up 32% from the prior year, with net income at $573 million. The event contracts business grew roughly 50% from Q1 alone, and more than tenfold year-over-year. The platform processed 13.6 billion contracts during the quarter, a 55% jump from the previous three months.
Much of that volume came from FIFA World Cup markets. Crypto trading revenue dropped to $100 million, a 38% decline year-over-year. Nearly two million users have now traded event contracts on the platform.
How Robinhood built a prediction markets machine
The foundation was laid in 2024, when Robinhood launched CFTC-regulated event contracts tied to the US presidential election. In March 2025, the company rolled out a dedicated prediction markets hub, centralizing the product across categories. But the real inflection point came with Rothera, a joint venture exchange built with Susquehanna International Group.
Rothera went live in late May or early June 2026 and processed more than 3.5 billion contracts in its initial run. The exchange gave Robinhood its own matching engine, letting it retain more transaction revenue instead of routing orders through third-party platforms.
What comes next for Robinhood
Bernstein analysts project prediction market revenue could grow at a 64% compound annual growth rate, potentially reaching around $1.7 billion by 2028. Kalshi remains the most prominent CFTC-regulated rival, but it lacks Robinhood's distribution: millions of brokerage accounts, a large mobile install base, and now its own exchange backend. Polymarket, by contrast, settles trades on blockchain rails that Robinhood's contracts don't touch.
Investors watching HOOD will likely focus on whether the Q2 numbers reflect a World Cup-driven peak or a sustainable baseline, since major global events create volume surges that don't repeat every quarter.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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