On-chain analyst Willy Woo argues bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is fading and may give way to a six-to-eight-year pattern tied to traditional debt and liquidity conditions. He points to shrinking new supply and the growing share of bitcoin held by ETFs and corporate treasuries as the drivers behind the shift.
Bitcoin's four-year cycle, long tied to its halving schedule, may be breaking down. Willy Woo, a widely followed on-chain analyst, argues the asset could be transitioning toward a six-to-eight-year cycle, increasingly shaped by the same debt and liquidity conditions that move traditional markets.
From halving to liquidity
Woo's case rests on bitcoin's shrinking supply shock. After the halving in April 2024, new BTC issuance fell to approximately 0.8% of the existing supply per year. The next halving, due in early 2028, will cut that figure to roughly 0.4%.
As new supply becomes less significant next to the existing market, Woo argues the halving's ability to dictate bitcoin's broader price cycle weakens. Instead, he suggests the asset may start moving more closely with TradFi's six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycle.
ETFs and treasuries reshape the supply picture
The halving framework worked well for much of bitcoin's history, but the market structure has changed, largely because of US spot bitcoin ETFs. These products now hold close to 1.3 million BTC, over 6% of circulating supply, while public companies holding at least 1,000 BTC each own more than a million units combined.
Together, ETFs and corporate treasuries control almost 12% of circulating BTC, far more than miners now create annually.
Woo isn't alone in questioning the old framework. Arthur Hayes claimed in 2025 that traders focus too heavily on the four-year cycle, and Fidelity Digital Assets, in a report from last year, questioned whether bitcoin's maturing market could produce more gradual rallies and corrections rather than the violent boom-and-bust swings of the past.
Source: CryptoPotato
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